It seems that the United States and Israel have lost their way. During the 12-day war, we were told that the nuclear facility at Natanz had been destroyed; now it has been bombed again. During the 12-day war, the plutonium reactor at Arak was bombed, but that did not prevent parts of it from being bombed again. Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump claim that Iran tried to rebuild its nuclear program. That claim contradicts the statement by the head of U.S. intelligence, who said that they had detected no attempts to rebuild the nuclear program since the 12-day war.
During Operation Rising Lion, the military said it had severely damaged Iran's defense industries. Now it is explaining that the offensive effort is intended to strike Iran's defense industries. Before the war, it was said that Iran had 100 to 150 missile launchers left — after the intensive bombardment during Operation Rising Lion. Last week, the IDF spokesperson detailed how many targets Israel had struck and how many launchers it had destroyed, and the bottom line was: Iran has 100 to 150 launchers remaining.
The negative scenario is that the war ends with Iran weakened, but governed by an even more extreme regime whose main lesson from the war is that it must race at full speed to acquire a nuclear bomb. A regime that will boast about standing for weeks against two of the world's most powerful militaries and surviving.
Moreover, the energy crisis was described last week by the head of the International Energy Agency as the most severe ever. Many countries are already feeling its effects acutely — switching to four-day workweeks, imposing blackouts on public lighting, and encouraging people to work from home.
Egypt is in a severe crisis, and Israel is not immune either. This crisis will not end when the war ends — because of the damage to the gas field in Qatar. It will take many long months to repair it.
Iran has demonstrated its ability to deter the entire world from attacking it. And if, in the end, the war also looks like an irresponsible Israeli operation that dragged along the president of the United States, equipped with limited strategic capabilities, pointing the finger at Israel will become automatic. Most of the world agreed that it was justified to fight to overthrow Iran's abhorrent regime, but the first principle of statesmanship is that you do not start a war knowing that its objective is unrealistic.
President Trump now faces an important decision: escalate or end it. A third option, a deal with Iran, does not appear realistic. Of course, it is possible to pretend that a deal has been reached, including various statements by Iran to the outside world, allowing Trump to end the war.
Under the escalation option, the United States and Israel have many ways to escalate: striking energy facilities and blacking out Tehran, a ground operation in Tehran or a ground operation aimed at extracting the enriched uranium, seizing Kharg Island and attempting to take control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Choosing the option of declaring victory and ending the war will probably turn the war into a colossal mistake. The operational directive spoke of weakening the Iranian threat; Netanyahu and the government spoke of regime change in Iran; and the war will end with the regime still in place and weakened, but more dangerous than ever.
It is difficult to assess what the outcome of an escalation would be, but one thing is clear: Netanyahu has fulfilled his greatest dream — dragging the United States into a war with Iran. The price is that this has been done with the current president. The alliance with Trump has turned all of us into hostages to Trump's ego. From Trump's perspective, a war of attrition that would severely damage the Israeli economy and the standard of living of the Israeli public for years is not a significant consideration as long as his ego is satisfied.