Yoav Segalovich is surprised by the reactions he is getting. Senior figures in the security and police establishment are calling him, praising him — people he never thought would be enthusiastic about the partnership with Ra’am. Segalovich decided a long time ago to go for it. In any case, there isn’t much of a future in Yesh Atid. As far as he is concerned, it is either this or leaving political life. He sees the move, rightly, as breaking down a wall — in fact, two walls: the wall between Jewish and Arab Israelis, and the wall of fear surrounding cooperation, the very wall Netanyahu is working so hard to make higher.
Mansour Abbas isn’t really hesitating either. As far as he is concerned, the move is settled, even if the agreement — which is also supposed to establish Segalovich as Ra’am’s candidate for Minister of Internal Security — has not yet been signed. Abbas is delaying the announcement because the most impressive leader on the political scene wants to do it slowly, gradually acclimating his conservative base to two tectonic changes: breaking with the Shura Council and reserving a guaranteed slot for Segalovich. For now, the opposition is smaller than he expected.
Polls predict that Ra’am will grow stronger. But Abbas is cautious. We have already seen in the past that this is not a one-man party. His nightmare scenario is that those left behind will form a party of their own to compete for the votes of Ra’am’s traditional electorate. For now, it seems Segalovich has mainly helped him avoid attempts to force Ra’am into a joint Arab list, which would have reduced his chances of joining a future coalition.
Abbas’s groundbreaking moves, together with Balad’s merger with Hadash-Ta’al, will finally make it clear to all those trying to avoid the obvious conclusion that the real political landscape is nowhere near a simple 60–50–10 split. According to all the research, turnout among Arab citizens will be very high (thank you, Itamar Ben-Gvir). Once Balad joins Hadash-Ta’al, wasted votes in Arab society will be minimal. It is far more reasonable to expect the two Arab parties to win 15 seats. That would make the task of the non-Arab Change Bloc reaching 61 seats almost impossible.
Avigdor Lieberman and Naftali Bennett have not yet responded to Segalovich joining Ra’am. It would be wise for them to use the move to soften their opposition to including Ra’am in a coalition. According to the polls, Segalovich’s inclusion slightly reduces Jewish opposition to partnering with an Arab party, but the opposition remains strong, especially on the right. Even vague formulas for now, such as “There is no doubt that this is a positive change, but much more is needed before we agree to sit with them,” would help Bennett and Lieberman the day after the election. Abbas and Segalovich are smart enough to take this one step further. Abbas has already said that he recognizes Israel as a Jewish state. Surely he would have no problem, for example, speaking about the Declaration of Independence and emphasizing the equality it promises to all minorities.
In this context, Gadi Eisenkot is demonstrating remarkable resilience. After one initial stumble, he has stuck to a long formula that puts every interviewer to sleep while leaving the door open to including Ra’am in a coalition. Netanyahu keeps attacking him. So far, without success.
There is another consequence to the expected rise in the strength of the Arab parties. The Netanyahu bloc could fall to perhaps 46–47 seats. In such a situation, when he is 14–15 seats short of forming a coalition, how strong will Netanyahu’s argument be that the Change Bloc must not form a government relying on Ra’am and Segalovich?
And there is another scenario in which Netanyahu agrees to implement the Deri model from the current government: not taking an official position himself, but bringing Likud into the government, choosing the ministers, demanding absolute loyalty, and remaining a significant center of power from the outside. When you see how submissive Likud’s MKs and ministers are, despite Netanyahu’s brazen efforts to reserve guaranteed spots for his allies, it is fairly clear that he has little reason to fear them challenging him.