Gadi Eisenkot’s statement was almost self-evident. Even if the next election ends with 58 seats for the change bloc and 52 seats for the Netanyahu bloc, a government will be formed. Immediately afterward, the hysteria began. Fear of Netanyahu and his associates mounting an offensive, and their great success in the last election, which was based on hatred of Arabs, caused even Eisenkot to slam on the brakes halfway through his explanation (but not retract his statement). Worse, it pushed Avigdor Lieberman to go one step further in his commitment not to form a government that relies on Arab parties.
It is hard to come to terms with this. After all, there is no reason to disqualify some of the Arab parties, and within Arab society — as polls demonstrate — there is a growing desire to join a coalition. But it is indeed a factor that keeps many voters from voting for the change bloc and could determine the election.
It is painful and terrible, but voters will also have little difficulty swallowing a simple formula: the overriding principle is to replace the worst government in the country’s history as soon as possible, and the subordinate principle is to form a government that does not rely on a non-Zionist party — meaning that the 61st vote will not belong to Mansour Abbas. Abbas himself has publicly agreed to this. The logical conclusion is that if the election result is 52–58, the change bloc will form a minority government based on Arab abstention, the Netanyahu government will be replaced, some sanity will return, and afterward the new government will try to bring in new partners: perhaps the ultra-Orthodox parties, perhaps Likud without Netanyahu. At worst, there will be another election, but the caretaker government will be led by Bennett–Lieberman–Lapid–Eisenkot–Golan, rather than by the pile of people currently dismantling the country from within.
The more dramatic question is what configuration the Arab parties will run in. Ahmad Tibi is pushing to revive the Joint List, and has even been asking journalists to test this option in polls. Smart of him. The enthusiasm within Arab society is striking in this case: turnout would rise, Arab society’s influence would increase, and it could reach 15–16 seats. The problem is that the gap between the change bloc and the Netanyahu bloc would then almost disappear, potentially reaching the 51–53 range. In such a case, even Abbas leaving the Joint List after the election would not be enough to form a caretaker government to replace Netanyahu’s government. Moreover, such a Joint List — with Abbas standing alongside Sami Abu Shehadeh — would paint Ra’am in more militant colors.
Abbas prefers a different scenario. Two lists — Balad–Hadash and Tibi’s Ta’al on one list, and Ra’am on another. It might produce fewer seats, but those seats would have greater influence. Abbas is currently swallowing a lot of frogs from his potential partners and keeping quiet simply so as not to ruin things. The Bibist right is doing everything it can to tarnish his image, but in his case the task is considerably harder.
He once told me, “Do you know what I regret most after October 7? That I didn’t go to the Gaza border communities to show solidarity with what happened.” Had I gone, he said, it would have been harder to demand again and again that I condemn Hamas’s actions. After the attack on Gaza began, even Abbas could not go. When tens of thousands of Gazans are killed, including entire families who have relatives in Israel, there is no Arab leader who can do that.
In Hadash, the situation is more complicated. Ayman Odeh did not survive politically after helping bring down the change government and paving the way for Netanyahu’s government. The list expected there will probably be paler and will force the party to form alliances. Tibi did manage to survive in Ta’al. Most likely, Tibi — and whoever ends up leading Hadash — have learned the lesson. They will not cooperate with Netanyahu and Smotrich again.