Have we reached the point where politicians will act against their own clear political interests?
Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) politicians have gotten us used to them being the more rational players. Their record is free of the kinds of trolling that characterized the right wing, which brought down Yitzhak Shamir’s coalition in 1992, or Ayman Odeh, Ahmad Tibi, and Mazen Ghanaim, who helped topple the "change government" and pave the way for the most extreme right-wing government in the country’s history.
A large majority of voters for Haredi parties do not want early elections. Most non-Haredi voters—including many right-wing ones—do want the next coalition to exclude the Haredim. So why would Aryeh Deri and Moshe Gafni risk alienating their voters and give up unprecedented positions of power, all in favor of a future in which they are quite likely to end up in the opposition?
It would be a bit simplistic to say that these politicians are acting irrationally. Ego and the need to preserve an image of power are also major factors. Tibi and Odeh were willing to poke out their own eyes, as long as Mansour Abbas got hurt more. In the current case, Deri, Gafni, and their colleagues have been repeatedly humiliated. They made public promises they couldn’t keep and now find themselves in a position where a few more months in power may matter less than the fear of being seen as doormats that Netanyahu steps on to preserve his rule.
Yuli Edelstein played the draft law negotiations brilliantly. He convened the committee dozens of times, mastered the data, and presented positions that were not too extreme but also unacceptable to the Haredi public. He brought the situation to a point where, even though there likely is a coalition majority for a full exemption law — it simply cannot be legislated. Last Friday, Ariel Atias, the Haredi representative in the negotiations and no naive politician, tried to expose Edelstein’s bluff by agreeing to personal sanctions, which likely wouldn’t pass the Rebbes (Haredi rabbis). Edelstein gladly pocketed the concessions but has yet to produce a draft bill.
Netanyahu and the Haredim are losing their minds. They have no real leverage over Edelstein. He can't be threatened with the loss of a position of power. Removing him from the chairmanship of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee over such a fundamental issue will likely earn him points, even within Likud. Netanyahu appointed him to head the committee because he wanted to punish him for daring to consider running against him. He thought that was the one place where Edelstein would have the least ability to retaliate for his demotion. The opposite happened. Edelstein got a perfect and painful revenge — and it's nearly impossible to find his fingerprints on the knife.
Assuming there’s no chance of forming a mutually agreed-upon bill, the discussion on dissolving the Knesset shifts to procedural grounds. How quickly can a bill to move up the election be passed through all three readings? When there’s real will, it can happen in just a few days. But Netanyahu and the coalition chairman have tools to delay and stall it. The opposition will push for a faster pace, and the decision may end up in the hands of the Supreme Court again.
The Supreme Court’s ability to compel a vote on a proposed bill will depend on the signatures of 61 MKs. If 61 sign a statement expressing their desire to dissolve the Knesset, it will be very hard to delay a vote. In other words, it all comes back to the Haredim. Will their egos be satisfied with a preliminary first reading vote on dissolving the Knesset and then heading off to a long recess, or will they really go all the way?
The Haredim — especially Shas — won’t want to be seen as the ones who rushed to bring down Netanyahu’s government, which is highly favored by the vast majority of their voters. A rational assessment is that elections won't happen before the summer recess, and that the matter will only return to the table in the winter session in October 2025 — unless their narrow political interest has already been crushed in the waterfall of their anger.