In February, a hostage deal could have been made. Benjamin Netanyahu thwarted it. Let’s imagine a hypothetical scenario where Netanyahu had made the deal then. In the first phase, dozens of hostages would have been returned alive, soldiers’ deaths would have been avoided, northern residents might already have been back in their homes, and the economy would have begun to breathe again. It’s also possible that a normalization deal with Saudi Arabia would have been completed, stabilizing a moderate axis against the Iranian “axis of evil.” Such cooperation might have created a political alternative in Gaza: Mohammed Dahlan, the Emirates, and the Palestinian Authority.
Such an alternative would have posed a real threat to Hamas’s rule in Gaza and allowed for a large-scale exit from the Strip. In that case, would Yahya Sinwar, Nasrallah, and Muhammad Deif still be alive and declaring victory? Well, not exactly. First, Netanyahu only wanted to complete the first phase of the deal, after which he could have tried again to eliminate the three of them after those 42 days. So Netanyahu didn’t release dozens of hostages out of a desire to kill Sinwar, but because of political fears.
More importantly: Netanyahu and his supporters deliberately confuse means with ends. Eliminating these arch-terrorists is important and certainly helps Israeli deterrence, but the goal is a better security reality — not graphics on the evening news or an “X” over terrorist leaders’ heads. Israel has eliminated Abu Jihad, Abu Nidal, Ahmad Jabari, Bahaa Abu al-Ata, Ismail Abu Shanab, Abd al-Aziz Rantisi, Ahmed Yassin, and hundreds more terrorists. Meanwhile, Hezbollah and Hamas have grown into the strongest formations they’ve ever been — not because of the assassinations, despite them.
The United States conquered Iraq in a dazzling operation and celebrated capturing the dictator Saddam Hussein in a hole. Is there anyone in the U.S. today who doesn’t regret how things were handled in Iraq? The U.S. conquered Afghanistan and invested 20 years of blood and treasure there. President Barack Obama and the American nation celebrated the execution of Osama bin Laden. So? Afghanistan is now controlled by the harshest regime, the Taliban, after the U.S. fled by helicopter — leaving behind those who had no place with them.
Netanyahu has led the war into a dead end. Continuing to stay in Lebanon and Gaza means more and more casualties, no calm for the north, Hezbollah recovering, increasing international pressure, and worst of all: no way out, neither here nor there. Netanyahu deliberately did not try to create any political alternative, neither for Hezbollah in Lebanon nor in the Gaza Strip.
Now he’s rushing toward the next goal — Iran. More exchanges of blows will only prolong the war, deepen the base’s sense of necessity for continuing his rule, and perhaps even realize his old dream: involving the U.S. in the war, forcing it at this sensitive political moment to come to Israel’s aid not only defensively but also in an attack on Iran. This is a heavy and dangerous gamble. Netanyahu intensified the assassination attempt on him the day before yesterday and attributed it to Iran, deliberately justifying Israel’s imminent response.
The bottom line is that many scenarios for continuing the war can be imagined, some involving a blessed erosion of the enemy’s military capabilities. But one scenario is difficult to envision: ending the war. Netanyahu is unwilling to hear about it. That’s why the hostage deal isn’t moving forward. Sources familiar with the negotiations say the situation has not changed following Sinwar’s assassination. The only thing that happened is that Netanyahu strengthened his damaging argument that there is value in continuing the war. “See, we killed Sinwar — maybe now we’ll kill his brother.”