Analysis of political polls focuses on the question “Yes or no to Bibi.” According to most polls, the current situation is that Benjamin Netanyahu has no chance of becoming the next prime minister. In the most favorable polls, he might prevent his opponents from forming a coalition and drag the country into another round of elections. An equally interesting question is: if Netanyahu loses, who will be prime minister? Until recently, the answer was Benny Gantz; he hovered around 35–40 seats. Today, this is far from clear.
The main competition is between Gantz and the leader of the new right-wing party, once it is formed. Among Naftali Bennett and Gideon Sa’ar’s circles, they say it won’t be a problem: whoever has the chance will come first. For now, it appears that in the Bennett–Sa’ar–Yossi Cohen party, Bennett is guaranteed first place. A coalition with Avigdor Lieberman is more problematic. Lieberman will not agree to be second. His ability to form a coalition is almost non-existent, the ultra-Orthodox won’t connect with him, and he has no natural partners, but he will return to the kingmaker position and to a large extent decide who will be prime minister. He will likely tilt more to the right, his natural direction.
Gantz has a big hurdle. He needs Lapid’s support, and given their relationship, there is no certainty Lapid won’t choose Bennett. Lapid’s public would find that choice hard to accept, but Lapid could argue: “Gantz will give way to Bennett just like I did last time.” Without Lapid on his side, Gantz has no chance. And Yair Golan is in a peculiar position. His lack of respect for Gantz only competes with his great bitterness toward Bennett, whom he blames for losing the Chief of Staff position (Bennett echoed Golan’s “processes” speech), but he will have no choice; he will have to join any government, and his public will demand he support Gantz.
Gantz’s big dilemma will be whether to continue boycotting Netanyahu. Sa’ar has already declared that the boycott is irrelevant in the post–October 7 reality. Gantz doesn’t like boycotts, and until three weeks ago, he even met with Netanyahu. On the other hand, what would distinguish him from Bennett and his colleagues?
The real chance that Bennett will sit in a Netanyahu government is zero. The scars from the poison machine still run deep. Sa’ar has shown more than once that he can resist Netanyahu’s temptations, but the question is what he will say now to his public.
Gantz often boasts that he can bring the ultra-Orthodox on board. Just a few days ago, he even praised Aryeh Deri and recalled the deceptive dreams of Shimon Peres in less favorable times. This is the most practical meaning of the future competition in current politics. The competition between Gantz and Bennett might create a situation where, before elections come and Netanyahu is gone, a race to secure the ultra-Orthodox parties will begin. Not because they are essential to form a coalition, but because each will depend on them to become prime minister. In such a race, they will sell the conscription law, the allowances, and everything else along the way.
The place of Mansour Abbas is just as interesting and also sad. All the political leaders competing for the “day after” heap endless praise on him, saying he is the real deal, but sadly predict that Netanyahu has succeeded in burning him publicly, and that it’s impossible to truly integrate him into power. Gantz must distance himself from that position. He must hope that instead of Ayman Odeh — who has already announced he will retire — Ahmad Tibi and Ofer Cassif, another leadership will emerge in Hadash–Ta’al, one that will at least allow him to build outside support.
10–12 Arab seats could build the bridge that will allow Gantz to defeat Bennett in the competition and fulfill his dream of finally being elected prime minister.