The IDF delivered an unusual briefing to journalists last week. “The Air Force is already preparing for the next major mission, which may get a boost from the new tenant in the White House,” a senior military official told them. “New plans to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities are currently being revised, under far more favorable conditions than before: there are more opportunities.”
Since when does the Israeli Air Force announce its plans to Iran? Why bring Donald Trump publicly into this equation?
The answers lie in the unprecedented situation created by Iran’s nuclear program. Iran is at its most advanced stage ever, which is why talk of bombing nuclear facilities is hollow. Bombing the large facilities and advanced centrifuges — whose destruction could once delay progress by several months — is now useless. Panels on Channel 14 and i24 push “the Churchill of Balfour Street” to strike the nuclear sites, without grasping that this phase is over. Iran has effectively completed uranium enrichment. It’s now just a screwdriver’s turn away from having enough fissile material for a nuclear bomb.
The next stage of Iran’s program is installing the mechanism that turns enriched uranium into a nuclear weapon. This stage, called the “weaponization group,” can be carried out in smaller, concealed, harder-to-bomb locations. Even if intelligence locates them, bombing would maybe delay Iran by a few weeks. Not worth the risk.
These facts are not news to the Western world. They’re the reason for the West’s ultra-cautious approach toward Iran in the past year — trying to avoid pushing Iran over the edge. Iran has learned Ukraine’s lesson well: it’s doubtful Russia would’ve dared invade had Ukraine not willingly given up the nuclear weapons once held within its borders. Until recently, world powers feared that excessive pressure on Iran would push it to cross the threshold and send a North Korean-style message: “Don’t mess with us.”
What has changed, of course, is Iran’s current weakness. It no longer has the capability to threaten Israel through its “ring of fire.”
In other words, a new military path has opened for dealing with the Iranian nuclear threat — not by bombing the nuclear facilities, but through a significant Israeli-American strike on Iran itself. The goal would be to threaten regime change and force Iran to sign a new, stricter, and especially longer-lasting nuclear agreement.
To make such a threat credible, Trump is needed. Unfortunately, so far he’s been willing to project strength against almost everything — except Iran, which he still talks about in terms of “a deal.” Netanyahu’s big challenge is to convince him to at least start issuing threats. After all, this is not a president known for sticking to his word. Worst-case scenario: the threat remains just that.
Ironically, Iran’s relative weakness could push it to finally cross the threshold and deliver a decisive deterrent message to the world. Over the past 15 years, the debate around Iran’s nuclear program has mostly been driven by manipulation. Israel tried to pressure the world and create a sense of urgency among its own public. This time, the situation truly matches that urgency.
The Air Force is making threats because the IDF fully understands what Channel 14’s headlines stubbornly refuse to grasp: Israel cannot strike alone. This isn’t Iraq’s Osirak reactor or Syria’s. Maybe a credible joint Israeli-American threat could produce a better nuclear deal. A military strike seems unrealistic, and Iranian threshold-crossing isn’t even worth elaborating on. So far, the Trump team hasn’t shown it has the diplomats capable of closing such a complex agreement. But the Air Force’s briefing suggests that at least in Israel, this is the direction they’re starting to think in.