During discussions about a potential large-scale ground operation in the north, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was perhaps the most extreme among the speakers. He painted the most terrifying worst-case scenarios, explained to those present that there would be long power outages and that the oil refineries would be attacked, and mentioned numbers better left unspoken. Even after the killing of children in Majdal Shams, it’s hard to see Netanyahu leading the country into such a campaign. And rightly so.
While he was in the United States, Netanyahu and his aides debated another issue: whether to replace Defense Minister Yoav Gallant with Gideon Sa’ar. The advantage: even the consultations and their publication are meant to pressure Gallant and put Netanyahu — who has never appeared weaker — back in the position of a magician who can juggle, turn an enemy into an ally at a moment’s notice, and fire a defense minister with a text message.
This move itself seemingly has advantages: getting rid of the problematic Gallant, who is blocking the conscription law, pursuing an independent policy, and revealing from the depths of darkness that the king is naked. Adding New Hope would turn the coalition into a 68-seat coalition, or 67 excluding Gallant. Itamar Ben Gvir would not be able to topple the government.
If Netanyahu promotes this move, it will prove just how desperate he is. Netanyahu’s hostility toward Sa’ar — and even more so toward Sa’ar’s wife and son, Yakir Li — is not in doubt. Netanyahu also knows Sa’ar is not an easy client. He won’t be a partner for regime changes of any kind, and it’s doubtful Sa’ar will help with the conscription law. If Sa’ar eventually becomes defense minister, Netanyahu might even miss Gallant. Sa’ar doesn’t respect Netanyahu, knows his weaknesses well, and will act with independence no less than Gallant from his very first day in office.
Is Sa’ar interested? He is known to be a politician with a firmer backbone than most of our politicians. All of Netanyahu’s courtships over the years have failed — even when a rotation premiership was offered to block the Change Government. Sa’ar is one of the few who preferred not to bow to his reflection, choosing to give up an explosive and short-term position rather than submit to Netanyahu.
However, this time Sa’ar is not denying the offer. This also helps him raise his value in negotiations about forming a future right-wing party. Naftali Bennett basically does not want to include Sa’ar in his new party, certainly not as a separate faction. Bennett wants only fifty shades of Matan Kahana — not Ayelet Shaked or Sa’ar. Perhaps what will convince him is the need to prevent Sa’ar from joining Netanyahu.
Sa’ar made a terrible mistake when he left the national camp. The reasoning was ideological, but the real cause was ego. He received a dream offer from Benny Gantz: a spot at the top, eight places for his party up to number 30, and even room to negotiate more. But Sa’ar couldn’t accept a situation where Gantz alone decides whether to give him a bigger share on the list. Now his political life has hit rock bottom. His party isn’t passing the electoral threshold, and offers from other parties are unattractive.
Generally, Sa’ar is one of those politicians who mostly suffers from the day-to-day political grind. For him, it’s a Sisyphean task focused on petty matters. If he really agrees to be defense minister in Netanyahu’s government, there is only one interpretation: he has decided to definitively exit the political system and, before ending, wants to try the defense minister role. It would be a sad way to end a political career. His chance to influence Netanyahu’s government — which is completely bound by Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich — is minimal to none. Sa’ar will not shape the solution in the north nor close a deal in the south, and left, center, and right will denounce him from day one. Better to resign now.