Operation “Guardian of the Walls” in May 2021 was supposed to end on Sunday, May 16, 2021, but was delayed until the night between Thursday and Friday. The main reason: an opportunity to eliminate Muhammad Deif. In the end, it was decided not to carry out the assassination. The assessment was that killing him would result in the deaths of 70 uninvolved Gazans. Today, that sounds like a fantasy story. When it was decided to eliminate Ahmad Randour, the northern brigade commander of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, entire buildings were demolished—densely populated areas—all to kill one villain. “Now we approve the killing of a Hamas deputy commander with the possibility of 70 casualties,” admits a senior official involved in the fighting.
International law permits harming uninvolved civilians who are alongside a military target but sets rules: how senior the target is, how impossible it is to eliminate them by other means, and how much collateral damage to civilians can be minimized. For decades, the IDF was the most advanced army in the world in its ability to apply these rules. Not in this war. Here, the thirst for revenge, the desire to show that “the boss has gone crazy,” and the widespread generalization that “everyone is a terrorist” have led to many actions that cannot be justified or rationalized. It is neither moral nor humane, and it stains us all.
The claim that military pressure does not help soften Hamas’s position is incorrect. People involved in negotiations, some still active and not part of Netanyahu’s circle, say unequivocally—the pressure helps. The perception on the ground in northern Gaza at the start of the war and the “Second Nakba” ethos prevalent then in Palestinian society had significant weight in Hamas’s decision to accept the first deal—the “dream deal” from Israel’s perspective. Even now, the fact that Hamas agreed to release one live hostage for five is largely attributed to the military pressure, and even more so to the halt of humanitarian aid, which hurts them greatly.
However, continued military pressure and the halt of humanitarian aid are almost inhumane and put us at risk of a prolonged confrontation with most of the international community, including indictments at The Hague. Despite the gradual softening of Hamas’s position, it does not seem likely they will agree to Netanyahu’s demands. In other words, after all the prices we will pay, hostages will not return, and there will be no deal. The alternative is to commit in one way or another to ending the war, withdrawing from Gaza, and accepting most—perhaps all—of our hostages. The price: Hamas remaining in power. Netanyahu claims that continuing the war will remove Hamas from power, but that seems unlikely, especially without a political alternative.
Netanyahu was asked dozens of times in closed discussions why he won’t commit to a ceasefire and then return to fight after a few months. Herzi Halevi told him early on—Hamas did not ask the UN’s permission before it started slaughtering us. Yair Lapid has a great phrase in this context: “This is the first time in history that the whole world is trying to convince Netanyahu to lie, and he refuses.”
His reasons have changed over the past year. At first, he said such a commitment would project weakness toward Hezbollah and Iran. Later, he said the Biden administration would not allow us to return to fighting. Two days ago, he claimed that anyone who thinks it will be possible to resume fighting does not understand the international system and what such a commitment would mean to the Saudis, Americans, etc. This is a weak argument. Many senior IDF officials told Netanyahu, “We will give you ten reasons every day to renew the fighting: ammunition transport, armed movements, smuggling, and more.” Who would be angry at Israel in such a case? Saudi Arabia, which wants Hamas eliminated? Donald Trump? The bottom line is terribly banal and very painful. Politics. As usual with Netanyahu. Only political survival.