The details of the deal that was signed are infuriating — a written monument to the boundless cynicism of Benjamin Netanyahu. On the surface, Netanyahu appears to have scored achievements in this deal, but in practice, they are meaningless, and above all, they do not justify six or twelve unnecessary months of hostages remaining in Hamas captivity. In his speech two nights ago, Netanyahu, as usual, wrapped kernels of truth in thick layers of lies. His proudest claim was that the deal includes no commitment to end the war. First of all, that’s an “achievement” in his eyes, and he needs it politically. It’s not truly in Israel’s interest, which could have long ago declared a permanent ceasefire, retrieved all the hostages, and — if it really wanted — resumed the war against Hamas two or three months later. Would any country in the world have blamed us for that?
In any case, this “achievement” was already secured in February 2024, and Netanyahu didn’t go through with a deal. Hamas backed down, then agreed again in July, and Netanyahu still didn’t sign. He boasted that in negotiations he managed to maximize the number of living hostages to be released — maybe even doubled it. That is a particularly cruel lie. Israel did manage to move some men under the age of 50 from Phase B to the current phase — at the steep cost of releasing 110 Palestinian prisoners serving life sentences. But the real story is this: during the half year Netanyahu wasted for political reasons, at least seven hostages were murdered — and they will never benefit from his so-called "maximization." Meanwhile, those same men under 50 could have already been released in Phase B, had Netanyahu signed a deal back in July.
The current public references by Netanyahu and his office to the Philadelphi Corridor are especially dangerous. Netanyahu knows the agreement’s appendix requires Israel to withdraw from the corridor between Day 42 and Day 50 of the deal — yet he strongly implies that Israel won’t do so. This has horrifying implications: if Hamas realizes that Netanyahu has no intention of implementing this clause, it will have no reason to release the final group of hostages scheduled for the last week — 14 hostages, some likely still alive. Netanyahu is knowingly endangering their lives just to appease Bezalel Smotrich, who has already decided to stay in the government regardless.
We can only hope — unfortunately, not based on past experience — that Netanyahu will manage to suppress his political impulses and at least allow Phase A to conclude without blowing it up, as he did with the previous deal (with the disappointing support of the security establishment and most of the war cabinet). Phase B will only be possible if Donald Trump decides to apply brutal pressure on him. Netanyahu’s current demands for Phase B would collapse negotiations on Day One. He insists Hamas be disarmed — a just demand, but one that Hamas will never accept. The more likely scenario is that, with Trump’s pressure, Netanyahu will at least conduct negotiations as Day 42 approaches, and perhaps even after — which would extend the ceasefire.
Will Netanyahu’s coalition survive that? On paper, he currently has the votes to pass a budget. But to do so, the ultra-Orthodox parties would have to give in and agree to pass it without a draft law. If that doesn’t happen, he’ll reach March — the last month in which a budget can be passed — with his political survival and security decisions more exposed and scrutinized than ever before. Moving to Phase B, or even extending the ceasefire, could automatically trigger elections in June 2025. Resuming the war just to pass a budget — with a worn-down army, an angry U.S. president, a resurgent Hamas, and hundreds of thousands of Palestinians living once again in northern Gaza — would be a reckless decision, and it’s hard to see how Netanyahu could push it through.
As absurd as only the Middle East can be, we may once again have to place our trust in Donald Trump’s judgment. God help us.