A few months after the war began, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi crown prince and the kingdom’s key decision-maker. "I want to do this," bin Salman surprised Blinken. "I want to sign normalization with Israel, and I want to do it now — before you get too close to your elections and it’s no longer possible." Blinken, surprised, asked, "What do you need to make that happen?" Bin Salman replied, "Calm in Gaza and a framework for a Palestinian state."
"Why do you want a Palestinian state?" Blinken wondered. "I don’t really care," bin Salman answered honestly — according to the detailed description by Bob Woodward in his latest book — "but 70% of my kingdom’s population is younger than me. Until October 7th, this issue didn’t concern them. Since then, they’re focused on it. Besides, leaders of other Arab countries are watching me, and I won’t betray my people."
Blinken got approval to raise the issue with Benjamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu was very interested. Until then, it seemed October 7 had shattered the excellent chance for an Israeli-Saudi normalization deal. "What do you mean by calm in Gaza?" Netanyahu asked. "No Israeli soldiers on Gaza soil," Blinken replied. "We’ll work on that," Netanyahu responded, then added: "What do you mean by a framework for a Palestinian state?" "It must be clear, irreversible, real, and credible," Blinken said. "Okay, we can work on that, find some clever wording," Netanyahu replied. "No, not wording. Everyone already knows you," Blinken said. "It must be real and credible."
Unfortunately, Netanyahu gave up, and that opportunity was lost. He preferred to continue the war rather than forge a dramatic alliance with Saudi Arabia — a counterweight to the Iranian axis, the return of the hostages, and an attempt to establish a rival governance to Hamas in Gaza.
Fortunately, contrary to many concerns (including mine), the opportunity has not been lost. Bin Salman is still interested, the U.S. president sees potential for a Nobel Prize, and for Netanyahu, it’s a chance to somewhat soften the disgrace of October 7. The defense establishment considers this "the Holy Grail," no less. A Saudi-American defense alliance does not frighten them. A nuclear enrichment program on Saudi soil — yes, but that does not seem like an insurmountable obstacle.
On the American side, there is a tough challenge — passing it in Congress. Although the Republicans control it, a special majority is required for a defense pact (depending on the chosen model). Democrats abhor the Saudi regime and certainly have no interest in giving a win to the Republican president. That’s why bin Salman spoke with Blinken about such a move before the elections.
The truly dramatic question is in Israel. If Netanyahu still thinks rationally, he should have a clear outline: a comprehensive hostage deal, withdrawal from Gaza, a permanent ceasefire, the introduction of some Arab force into Gaza backed by the Palestinian Authority, and a historic normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia. This would return the remaining living hostages and significantly improve Israel’s strategic situation. Hamas would remain but weakened. And if Netanyahu stops his obsession against the Palestinian Authority, Hamas has already expressed willingness to relinquish civilian management of Gaza to another body — provided it enjoys some Palestinian legitimacy.
Given the current polls, it’s uncertain whether Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich would dare to push elections based on opposition to this outline. But even if they do, elections would be at least six months away, maybe more. In other words, Netanyahu can reap all these huge dividends at a not-too-high cost: shortening his term by a year and a few months.
The question remains: does he still think rationally?